Brian Mudd Explains How He Predicts Elections

On Tuesday, February 2, the Boca Chapter heard a discussion of election prediction from WJNO’s Brian Mudd.

Brian Mudd is the Weekday Mornings 5am-9am WJNO (1290 AM) Financial Analyst & Co-Host for The Palm Beaches’ Morning Rush. Brian has graciously given his time to us on several occasions as the moderator in campaign debates, but this time he came to speak about how he uses his statistical analysis skills to predict the outcomes in elections. The methodology he uses for applying undecided voters is actually based on a concept that was first introduced more than 20 years ago called the “Incumbent Rule”. The incumbent rule outlined how 80%+ of the time, undecided voters on Election Day would break for non-incumbent candidates. Through additional research Brian has been able to boil it down to the concept of the known vs. the unknown.

Brian analyzes races around the country in which the undecided voters can swing the outcome of an election. He then apply the undecided voters based on the historical trends in that particular state over the last twenty years. It’s a lot more work but has proven to be extremely accurate as Brian has been able to accurately pick the outcome 98% of the time in the last two Presidential Elections since he began using this method. This cycle presents two challenges. First there isn’t an incumbent that’s running in either party and secondly, he doesn’t fully apply the method to primary and Caucus races because the nature of the primaries isn’t applicable from one cycle to another (variance with the number of candidates primarily).

Brian has also predicted based on several factors that there is a 92% chance that a Republican (he won’t say which one) will win the Presidency. Brian received a standing ovation for that one.

The meeting started earlier than normal at 6 PM to accommodate Brian because of his early morning work schedule, he has to wake up at 2:30 in the morning. After Brian spoke, we heard from a representative from the Donald Trump campaign, Sue Snowden and a representative from the Ted Cruz campaign, Marion Frank. Marion then went on to discuss the differences between capitalism and socialism; how so many Americans don’t even know what socialism is. However, all members in attendance at this tea party definitely knew the difference.

Read more: Cheat Sheet for 2/1/16 – Iowa Caucus special

Read more: Cheat Sheet for 2-5-16: Who would win New Hampshire today?

Cade Marsh – the Face of Tomorrow’s Republican

A past President of the PBAU Young Republicans who joined us in Wellington on Wednesday, Cade Marsh remembers when you could count the members on one hand, yet now there are several hundred. Now working on a state level, he is refining his techniques for recruiting the new conservative base.

Cade suggests that this next generation has a different view towards the news, often using social media to listen to those they trust rather than consuming mass media. This is all about “relationships” rather than “dictation”. With 1.1 million college students in Florida, and only 20% (by one estimate) who are registered to vote, there is a big opportunity here.

Asked what drives these newly politically actives, that is, what makes them angry enough to get involved, he pointed to the escalating size of the student loan burden. A solution (other than Bernie Sander’s concept of making the rich pay it off), involves new methods of education. Online learning for example, can deliver at much lower cost than the traditional classroom setting. Disruptive technologies are needed – think Uber.

Look for Cade at the Jupiter chapter in March.

Also at the meeting, we had volunteers from the Trump, Carson and Cruz campaigns boosting their guys, and we heard an update on the county plan to put a sales tax increase on the ballot this year – perhaps driving it up to 7.5%. The County Commission meets on it next Tuesday. For more information, see: Increasing Sales Tax a Bad Idea on the TAB website.

PBCTP Co-Hosts Palm Beach Gardens Candidate Forum on 2/25

February Tea Party Meetings

Chapter Meetings for February include:

• Abacoa on 2/1: CD18 Candidate Paul Spain, SOE Candidate Christine Spain, Jupiter Mayor Candidate Keats Soder.
• Boca Raton on 2/2: WJNO’s Brian Mudd.
• Wellington on 2/3: Cade Marsh, Political Consultant and Young Republican.

CLick on the location for more information and to RSVP.

Paul and Christine Spain at Abacoa on 2/1

Please join us on February 1st. at our Monday,
Jupiter Chapter Meeting as we host:

Dr. Keats Soder has experience in Community Activities. President of local HOA and Master Community of 13 HOAs in Coral Springs. His Manager Product Planning and Marketing skills have been successful though out his career.

Paul Spain is a driven innovator and fresh face in Florida public policy. He is ready to ensure that the interests of District 18 are protected in Congress. Paul is an advocate for better fiscal practices and renewed ideals for education. Spain will dedicate the time and energy to attain results for the citizens of District 18.

A graduate of Virginia Commonwealth University, Paul has a lifetime of community service including Chambers of Commerce, Kiwanis Club, a current member of the College of Financial Planning with Advanced Planning Certifications (AAMS, CRPS), and a member of Maggie’s List, which promotes and supports efforts by women to hold public office. He is the father of two and has three grandchildren.

Visit his website

She is the former Chairman of the Broward Republican Party (2014-2015), Vice Chairman (2012-2014) and Chairman of Congressional District #23 serving on the RPOF State Executive Committee in 2015.

Christine is an attorney in private practice in Boca Raton, serving Palm Beach and Broward Counties, and a Certified Public Accountant. She specializes in corporate law and business transactions and has years of experience working with both national law and accounting firms serving clients from Miami-Dade to Palm Beach.
Prior to her law career, she worked as an Audit Manager/CPA with a Big 4 Accounting Firm. Christine has also served on the Boards of non-profit organizations.

She has been a resident of South Florida for 40 plus years and is a graduate of Florida Universities, including the University of Miami School of Law, where she served on Law Review. She now resides in Jupiter with her husband.
Visit her on facebook

Please RSVP below.

WJNO’s Brian Mudd at Boca Chapter 2/2

Please join us on Tuesday, February 2, as the Boca chapter will host

On-Air Weekday Mornings 5am-9am WJNO Financial Analyst & Co-Host for The Palm Beaches’ Morning RushI work every day to keep you ahead of the curve on the crazy state of the economy, business, investments and technology.

My motto: Passion plus talent is unstoppable.

My faith: Don’t worry I don’t use the mic to preach but… I firmly believe that without God in our lives happiness will never be found. I believe that many of our societal failures have resulted from a general willingness to distance ourselves from our founding values while embracing political correctness.

I’m in my 18th year with iHeartMedia and 9th in South Florida. With my father as inspiration, I started investing in the stock market when I was 11 and co-founded a smoothie company at 18. The highlights of my radio career have been serving as a fill-in for Sean Hannity.

I’ve made my share of mistakes along the way as well. I shape my perspective from success and failure to provide you with a truly objective picture of business and money in your world. Business and investing are passions of mine. Some read Dean Koontz… I read financial reports.

I’m originally from the Atlanta area and am a die hard Braves & Falcons fan. I’m married to the love of my life Ashley, and yes I am related to Dr. Samuel Mudd, co-conspirator in the assassination of President Lincoln (he’s four greats an uncle).
My name is Mudd.

Also speaking will be Wellington Chapter Leader Marion Frank on:

1. Steven Emerson from the Investigative Project on Terrorism
2. Iowa Caucus
3. Cruz Campaign

Please RSVP below; no meal is served with this meeting.

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly with Dan Bongino

A good size crowd at Abacoa came to hear conservative pundit and former secret service agent Dan Bongino help summarize what Barack Obama has done to America.

Starting with a positive note – “The country will recover from Barack Obama”, he gave his perspective of the President – a smart man with a far-left agenda, surrounded by equal minded ideologues. From the executive orders on immigration, where the President repeatedly said he didn’t have the authority to act – then did just that, to the fanciful claims in the selling of Obamacare – “you can keep your doctor, etc. ..”, Dan described the country after the last seven years as living in a “post-constitutional society”. Our liberty is being taken away by “a man obsessed with power”.

In a clever characterization of the right-left divide, Dan points out that “we are all bound together by stories” (ie. narratives), but the left and right have different stories, which makes agreement or even dialogue very difficult.

Opening up the floor to questions, Dan went on for about a half hour, giving thoughtful, knowledgeable answers to a wide variety of questions, from 2030 and Agenda 21 (it is real – look it up), the control of local law enforcement by the DOJ, and why the Congress hasn’t moved to impeach Barack Obama (it would be unsuccessful, since 2/3 of the Senate would never vote to convict.)

Dan also had early copies of his book “The Fight, A Secret Service Agent’s Inside Account of Security Failings and the Political Machine”, available at Amazon for pre-order.

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Candidates who were introduced at the meeting were Brian Mast and Paul Spain (CD18), and Christine Butler Spain, who is running for Supervisor of Elections.

We also had volunteers from three of Presidential campaigns, as Fred Scheibl, Marion Frank and Barry Carson laid out a rationale for Donald Trump, Ted Cruz and Ben Carson, respectively. A short “straw poll” by Mel yielded about 25 votes for Trump, 10-15 for Cruz, and about 5 for Carson, with a few mentions of the other 9 candidates.

Senate Candidate Ron DeSantis visits RCNPB

Wellington Chapter Candidate Night – January 6

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Running for Florida House District 86.
Click for Bio

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Running for Florida House District 86.
Click for Bio

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Running for Wellington Village Council Seat 1, which is held by Vice Mayor John Greene.

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Running for Royal Palm Beach Mayor against Fred Pinto.

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Running for Wellington Mayor.

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Running for Royal Palm Beach Council Seat 3

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Running for Wellington Council

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Running for Royal Palm Beach Council.

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Please do your due diligence: Candidates have webpages, facebook and twitter accounts you can research and make your personal choices.

Confirmation of additional candidates to follow.

Please RSVP below; no meal is served with this meeting.

Boca Chapter Candidate Night – January 5

She is the former Chairman of the Broward Republican Party (2014-2015), Vice Chairman (2012-2014) and Chairman of Congressional District #23 serving on the RPOF State Executive Committee in 2015.

Christine is an attorney in private practice in Boca Raton, serving Palm Beach and Broward Counties, and a Certified Public Accountant. She specializes in corporate law and business transactions and has years of experience working with both national law and accounting firms serving clients from Miami-Dade to Palm Beach.
Prior to her law career, she worked as an Audit Manager/CPA with a Big 4 Accounting Firm. Christine has also served on the Boards of non-profit organizations.

She has been a resident of South Florida for 40 plus years and is a graduate of Florida Universities, including the University of Miami School of Law, where she served on Law Review. She now resides in Jupiter with her husband.

Visit her on Facebook

Please RSVP below; no meal is served with this meeting.

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